Short-term tight supply supports the price palm oil continues to fluctuate strongly.
2024.3.20
Xinhu Futures:During the redemption of Lido, the oil temporarily oscillated.[partial bulls]
Recently, the rainfall in Indonesia has decreased, and it is expected that the power of price adjustment in producing areas will be weakened. Today, we pay attention to the export pedicle shipping data of horse palm in the first 20 days of March, and the chain ratio is expected to continue to increase. During the Eid al-Fitr holiday in March-April, the stocks of palm oil producing areas are difficult to increase, and may even drop slightly temporarily. May-June production and inventory may usher in a turning point. In the early stage, the supply and demand have been tight in the middle of the transaction, and it is necessary to measure the cash level of the disk. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, and the US dollar index cashed in, rising in the afternoon, and domestic commodities mostly fell. In the night session, London metal fell as a whole, and the US beans fluctuated. The international soybean itself is not driven enough. Because the export of American soybeans is still weak, the export pressure of Brazilian soybeans exists, and Argentine soybeans will start harvesting soon. But supported by the cost, the space below is limited. Pay attention to the intentional area report of the new work of Meidou at the end of March.
Domestically, yesterday, domestic oil and fat fluctuated, and the night market was slightly weaker. Foreign investors reduced their positions in palm oil, but it was not significant. Fundamentally speaking, due to poor import profits and low import volume, domestic palm oil will continue to reduce its inventory. Domestic soybeans continued to be disturbed by various rumors last week, and the soybean crush was significantly reduced. Yesterday, the first batch of imported reserve soybeans was sold at a premium, suggesting that the market is worried about supply. Recently, there are still new rapeseed boats in China, and the supply and demand of vegetable oil in China is loose or continuous in the medium term. In addition, the estimated area of new rapeseed works has decreased year-on-year, but it has not yet started sowing at the expected stage. In the later stage, it is concerned about the cash situation. On the whole, March-April may be the gap period before the new round of international palm oil and soybean trading may be bearish. At present, this round of sharp rise is still a staged market. Technically, the previous interval of P2305 broke, and the short-term attention was paid to the performance of the futures price near the larger interval. In operation, multiple orders are carefully held. The spread between beans and brown continues to be weak. The spread of vegetable brown 2305 showed signs of rebound and decline.
Green Dahua Futures:International crude oil prices are strong, and domestic oil futures prices are supported.[Short rallies]
Variety point of view: the international crude oil rally continued, the output of Malaysia rebounded in early March, and the export decline rate increased in the same period. The domestic palm oil spot premium soybean oil, the substitution effect subsided. In view of the rapid rise of oil in the early stage and the increase of accumulated profit-taking, beware of the sharp decline in futures prices. In summary, many oil orders in the early stage continued to make profits gradually.
Operation suggestion: There are many orders of oil and fat, and they are gradually profitable to leave the market. Y2405 support level 7000, pressure level 8150; P2405 contract support level 6900, pressure level 8500; O12405 contract support level 7500, pressure level 8700.
Zhengxin Futures:In January and February, domestic imports were less, and palm oil continued to be strong.[partial bulls]
Origin: in the first half of March, the growth rate of horse palm production expanded to 38.8%, while the growth rate of export narrowed to 3.3% in the same period.
At home, the progress of soybean crushing in oil plants slowed down, and the downstream transaction of soybean oil was better; In some areas, the substitution of bean vegetable oil appeared, and the spot transaction of palm oil was average, but only 390 thousand tons were imported in January and February, and palm oil continued to go to the warehouse.
Strategy, Brazil’s soybean production continues to decline, but strong exports continue to impact the US soybean export market, and CBOT soybeans are once again under pressure at the integer mark of 1200 cents. In the first half of March, the increase in horse palm production increased, and BMD wool palm rose to a high level of more than one year and then slightly adjusted back. Domestic palm oil imports are low, and stocks continue to go down; The import of vegetable oil is on the high side, the stock of bean vegetable oil is slightly higher, the supply and demand of the three major oils are divided, palm oil is stronger than bean vegetable oil, and the spread between bean brown and vegetable brown continues to shrink; However, with the adjustment of positions after capital gains, palm oil gains slowed down, and the trend of strong shocks continued in the short term.
Hongyuan futures:Palm oil supply is tight in the short term to support the price.[Do more on dips]
On Tuesday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures closed down, with the benchmark period down by about 1.1%, because the arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal was unlocked. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats were adjusted to some extent, and palm oil was still the strongest. In the short term, the supply was tight to support the price, but the short-term increase was too large, and there was obviously profit-taking pressure. The supply of soybean oil and vegetable oil increased one after another in the later period, so it was not appropriate to chase after it. However, under the background of bean bottom detection, there is limited room for oil to fall back. In operation, wait for the fall before laying out multiple orders.
Everbright Futures:Domestic oil collective callback[Short rallies]
On Tuesday, BMD palm oil closed down, and the market lacked new catalytic factors due to profit-taking. MPOC expects the price of horse palm to fall back to the trading range of RM 3,800-4,000 in April. Investors wait for new export data or high-frequency output data to guide the market. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, Malaysia’s output increased by 38.8% from March 1 to 15, 2024 compared with the same period of last month, and shipping data showed that the export of horse palm oil increased by 8.4% from March 1 to 15. Domestically, the collective correction of oil and fat, the weak performance of soybean oil, the obvious profit-making performance of funds leaving the market, the spot followed down, and the terminal transaction slowed down. The inventory of oil plants fell, the import cost of soybeans and palm oil fell, the operating rate of soybeans fell, and palm oil arrived in Hong Kong less. In operation, more than one profit is closed, and soybean oil is bought and rapeseed oil is sold for arbitrage.
Maike futures:Horse brown is gradually adjusted, and even brown follows the callback[Oscillating operation]
Malaysia’s crude palm oil futures market gradually oscillated and fell back due to the lack of new bullish influence, and it is expected to gradually weaken to around RM4,100 for support under the pressure of profit closing; CBOT soybean stopped falling and adjusted. At present, American soybeans are impacted by the listing of South American soybeans, and the later period focuses on the publication of planting area data and the sowing progress of American soybeans. In terms of domestic oils and fats, the delay in the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong still has some support for the market. In addition, the price advantage of palm oil has declined recently, and soybean oil is replacing palm oil, which has been boosted to some extent. However, it is the traditional off-season demand, and the downstream demand is light, waiting for the disk callback. Operation suggestion: adjust the vibration around soybean oil 7800, palm oil 8000-8300 and vegetable oil 8100-8400.